Archives for March 2011

The Temple In Brigham City

The Temple In Brigham CityIt has been a week since the last photographs of the temple. The most visible sign of construction is the addition of more girders. In the third photograph, the height of the crane stands out — I wonder if it will be hoisting the statue of the Angel Moroni to its place atop the temple? In the last photograph in this series, you can also see the Tabernacle. Click on the images to enlarge.

Brigham City History

Colonization

In October of 1853, Mormon Church President Brigham Young gave Apostle Lorenzo Snow a special assignment. He was to choose 50 families to take with him to live in Box Elder. There he would organize a system of cooperative living in which the people would produce everything they consumed. Snow selected tradesmen with various skills important to the development of a pioneer community.

The newcomers began arriving in the spring of 1854 and joined the settlers already living near Box Elder Creek. Many of those who came in 1855 spent their first winter in dugouts. The men dug cellars in the ground and covered them with roofs made of poles, willows and dirt. Small openings were left in the makeshift roofs for light and for fireplace chimneys. These dugouts provided immediate shelter until more permanent log houses could be built over the cellars.

The only meat eaten that winter came from animals that had frozen or starved to death. In the early spring, people found sego lilies and a few wild tomatoes. For two months many had nothing to else to eat. Those fortunate enough to have a little flour made a thickening to put over the boiled segoes. Others ate them raw.

A Salt Lake City resident sent the Box Elder settlers a cow to add milk to their sparce diet. The cow ate a poisonous weed and died, and the people didn’t know what to do. They were starved for meat, but afraid to eat it because of the poison. Jensine Christensen fried a piece and fed it to her cat. the next day the cat was feeling fine so the people divided the meat, cooked it, and enjoyed it immensely. (From: Brighamcity.utah.gov)

The Temple In Brigham City

The Temple In Brigham City

The Temple And Tabernacle In Brigham City
Photo Credit: Jill Willoughby
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Daniel Has Such Cool Girlfriends

Daniel and girlfriendNow that Daniel is back from his mission he can concentrate on his schooling and maybe the odd girlfriend. His latest date, Krystal, was somewhat cold and a little flaky but she didn’t talk much so that was a positive. She has no heart for studying but did try a semester at Snow College.

Krystal likes ice skating, snow cones, and being outdoors. Her favorite movies are The Day After Tomorrow, Snow White, and Cold Mountain. I think she likes Daniel because she literally melted in his arms. Daniel’s brother said not to let this one slip away.

Krystal under construction

Krystal under construction

Unfortunately Krystal told Daniel she will be leaving for the summer but will be back next winter, probably with the first snows.

What do you think of Krystal?
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Brigham City Temple Construction Continues

Brigham City temple floor constructionSince last week, the temple has visible signs of more construction. The floors, instead of being just a framework of girders, now look like one could walk on them without falling through. In the last photograph in this series, you can also see the renowned Brigham City Tabernacle. Main Street runs between the two buildings. Click on the images to enlarge.

Brigham City History

Early Settlement

William Davis was the first white man to make his home in Shoshone Indian country near Box Elder Creek. He came in 1850 to explore the area, and in March 1851 he returned to stay. He brought his family and a few friends with him and the small group set to work building a fort for winter shelter and protection from Indian attacks. Eight families spent that winter in the crudely-constructed fort which soon became infested with insects. In the spring of 1852 they moved out of the fort onto farm plots.

By 1853, 24 Mormon immigrants were living along Box Elder Creek. Sarah Peters, who moved as a child to the Box Elder settlement in the spring of 1853, remembered the hostility of the Indians. One night when Sarah’s mother was home alone, she heard someone trying to open the door. As she approached, an Indian shoved his arm through the doorway. Pushing a table against the door, she grabbed a butcher knife and ran the back edge of it along the arm. The intruder withdrew his arm and then left the premises as the woman screamed for her husband, even though she knew he was nowhere near the home.

As Indian threats continued, the settlers were instructed to form a second fort for protection. They started building it in July of 1853. Individual houses were joined close together to form a block about an acre square. Openings at the north and south ends had to be guarded. (From: Brighamcity.utah.gov)

Brigham City temple floor construction closeupBrigham City temple girderBrigham City temple girder closeupBrigham City temple and tabernacle

Photo Credit: Jill Willoughby
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The Limits To Population Projections

Aurora, Cassandra, and Bryson

Grandchildren Aurora, Cassandra, and Bryson

I am intrigued by predictions of calamities that never materialized. For example, in the five decades leading up to the year 2000, I have lived through predictions of mass starvation, nuclear annihilation, and an ice age.

In 1972, The Club of Rome published a book entitled The Limits To Growth. In the foreword, on page 11, the authors identified “the five basic factors that determine, and therefore, ultimately limit, growth on this planet,” namely:

  1. Population
  2. Agricultural Production
  3. Natural Resources
  4. Industrial Production
  5. Pollution

“Super”-exponential Growth

In this post I am concerned only with population. Particularly the predictions the authors of The Limits To Growth made about population. The book goes into detail about exponential growth in general and as it applies to population:

In 1650 the population numbered about 0.5 billion, and it was growing at a rate of approximately 0.3 percent per year. That corresponds to a doubling time of nearly 250 years. In 1970 the population totaled 3.6 billion and the rate of growth was 2.1 percent per year. The doubling time at this growth rate is 33 years. Thus, not only has the population been growing exponentially, but the rate of growth has also been growing. We might say that the population growth has been “super”-exponential; the population curve is rising even faster than it would if growth were strictly exponential. (“The Nature of Exponential Growth,”The Limits To Growth, 1972, 34)

Clearly, “super”-exponential sounds very frightening. Indeed, of sufficient concern to cause governments to panic and adopt policies they would not normally endorse.

Intriguingly, in 1972, when “The Limits To Growth” was published, the growth rate of population was already in decline. Since that year the population growth rate has continually decreased to a rate that is almost half of the peak.

14.4 Billion People by 2030

Another warning from the book:

…we can look forward to a world population of around 7 billion persons in 30 more years [in the year 2000]. And if we continue to succeed in lowering mortality with no better success in lowering fertility than we have accomplished in the past, in 60 years there will be four people in the world for every one person living today. (The Limits To Growth, 38)

Taking the population as of 1970, which was 3.6 billion, and multiplying by 4, we arrive 60 years hence in 2030 with a predicted population of 14.4 billion people.

Now, using numbers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), let us see where the population was in 2000 and look at projections to the year 2100. I am using the IIASA estimates because they closely align with the United Nations medium variant but go beyond 2050.

Population Growth Chart and Table

World Population Growth

Year Population Year Population
2000 6.12 2050 8.75
2005 6.51 2055 8.85
2010 6.82 2060 8.87
2015 7.17 2065 8.90
2020 7.51 2070 8.89
2025 7.79 2075 8.87
2030 8.05 2080 8.85
2035 8.26 2085 8.72
2040 8.47 2090 8.62
2045 8.63 2095 8.50
2100 8.39

Population in billions

Conclusions

Notice that the 2000 population prediction was off by one billion less. The 14.4 billion forecast in 2030 will not be reached with less than 19 years left. The current IIASA projection is for a population peak that is just shy of 9 billion by 2068. Thus the prediction from The Limits To Growth will come up short by a huge 5.4 billion people.

Granted, I am using a current projection to discredit a past projection. However, the record so far is to overestimate population growth. For example, China’s population is projected to peak at less than 1.4 billion in 2026, both earlier and at a lower level than previously projected.

I expect to see further revisions downward in the projections of population growth. Fertility rates have been falling for over sixty years and demographic momentum will shrink the world’s population just as quickly as it contributed to rapid growth.

We must not let outfits such as The Club of Rome dictate to governments unwise population policies based on dubious and inaccurate predictions of the future.

External Articles

This list is updated occasionally, with newer additions listed first.

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100 Years Ago: Wireless, Parliament, Cities of the Sun

Experiments_in_wireless_telegraphy

Experiments in wireless telegraphy at the U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, circa 1902

The following was adapted from the Improvement Era magazine of March 1911.

Wireless Telegraphy

Wireless telegraphy has achieved a new triumph. The telegrams announced, a few days ago, that a physician on an ocean inner prescribed for and cured a case of ptomain-poisoning on a ship, eight hundred miles from the physician; and likewise the announcement has been made, through the telegrams, that a ship on the coast of Japan communicated with San Francisco, over five thousand four hundred miles away.

Zara

In the palace of King Noah, Zara is wooed by Amulon but loves Alma

[An early theory on the causes of food poisoning involved ptomaines, alkaloids found in decaying animal and vegetable matter. While some alkaloids do cause poisoning, the discovery of bacteria left the ptomaine theory obsolete.]

The Cities of the Sun

“The Cities of the Sun” is the title of a story-book issued by Elizabeth Rachel Cannon, and illustrated from paintings by George M. Ottinger, and photographs by the author. It contains five excellent stories of ancient America, founded on historical incidents in the Book of Mormon, and is made attractive by nineteen illustrations.

The stories are intended to interest the reader in the Book of Mormon itself, and are attractive both in matter and presentation.

[Read The Cities of the Sun on Google Books.]

Parliament

The British Parliament, which was dissolved on the 28th of November last, met January 31, 1911. The dissolved parliament was the shortest in duration, in a century, having been elected January, a year ago, assembled February 15, 1910, and dissolved, as stated, November 28.

The parliament had 275 liberals, 40 labor members, 71 nationalists, 11 independent nationalists, and 273 unionists. The chief issue involved was the veto power of the House of Lords. The new parliament opened Feb. 6, when King George used the new form for the Declaration of Faith which is not offensive to Catholics.

[In 2011, the parliament had 57 Liberal Democrats, 258 Labour, 6 Scottish National Party, 1 Independent, 8 Democratic Unionists, 307 Conservative, 5 Sinn Féin, 3 Plaid Cymru, 3 Social and Democratic Labour, 1 Green, and 1 Alliance.]

Adapted from: “Passing Events”, Improvement Era, Vol. XIV. March, 1911. No. 5.
Lead photograph: Library of Congress, Experiments in wireless telegraphy
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Replacing My Sacrificial Anode

Extracting the spent anode

Extracting the spent anode

It is time, yet again, to replace my water heater’s sacrificial anode. My purpose here is to bring to your awareness the importance of changing the anode to substantially prolong the life of your water heater. This is not a “how to” and if you are unsure of your skills you should call a professional.

Rust Protection

For decades, the sacrificial anode has been a key part of the rust protection of a tank. The anode is a rod made of magnesium or aluminum that’s formed around a steel core wire and is screwed into the top of the tank. When the tank is filled with water, an electrolytic process begins whereby the sacrificial anode is consumed to protect a small amount of the tank’s exposed steel. Anodes corrode more quickly in softened water.

When the anode is removed, if you can see six inches of the steel core wire, replace the rod. If all you have is the steel core wire, or less, then the tank may be about to fail, or it could last several more years. There are two kinds of anodes, combo and hex-head. The hex-head has its own port that you can see in my photographs, the combo is found in the hot water port.

I always replace my anodes with magnesium rather than aluminum. Aluminum produces less driving current between anode and cathode (the tank is the cathode). It produces many times its original volume in corrosion byproduct which adds to sediment and can also clog filters. Aluminum rods expand as they corrode making them hard to remove. And lastly some of that aluminum can get into the cold water and do nasty things to your liver, brain, and kidneys.

For more information, see The Basics: Anodes and Longevity. These are the people I buy my anodes from if I cannot obtain them locally.

Preparation

I read about sacrificial anodes just before my first water heater rusted through and had to be replaced. I removed the anode from the old tank and found all that was left of the rod was the steel core. By changing the sacrificial anode at least every five years, the new tank has now outlasted the old tank.

To make replacing the anode a little easier, when I bought my new tank I made sure it came with an hex-head anode. Before obtaining a replacement anode, I measured the distance from the top of the tank to the ceiling. That will be the maximum length of anode you can install. In my case I had 48 inches of clearance — just right.

Removal

Paul replaced the old anode with Megan photographing the steps.

Opening the temperature relief valve

Opening the temperature relief valve

Paul turned off the water to the house and then opened the temperature relief valve on the tank. He didn’t turn off the natural gas supply to the water heater, although in the past I have done so when I have changed the anode.

Using a wrench to remove the anode

Using a wrench to remove the anode

A large adjustable wrench was used to loosen the hex-head anode. It came out easily though sometimes they really do need a hefty wrench.

Removing the anode

Removing the anode

The old anode was removed. We had enough room between the top of the tank and the ceiling to remove the anode. However, if there was not sufficient space, the used rod will easily bend.

Inspecting the old anode

This is what our used anode looked like

On inspection, you can see that the anode does indeed need replacing. Four years ago this was a .84 inch thick 4 foot long solid magnesium hex-head anode.

Installation

Installing the new sacrificial anode is simple enough.

Adding tape for easy removal

Adding tape for easy removal

The new rod came with a roll of tape that is wound around the anode to make removal easier. The tape does not seem to hinder the essential electrolytic process that consumes the rod and thus protecting your tank.

Installing the anode

Installing the anode

Tightening the anode

Tightening the anode. Don't overdo it!

Anode fully installed

Anode fully installed. Paul, you do good work

Clean Up

Paul closed the temperature relief valve and turned the water back on.

Recording the installation

Recording the installation date

It is very important to record the installation date. My previous kit came with a sticker to place on my tank. The first replacement was done five years after installation of the water heater, in February of 2002. The next replacement was 31 Oct 2007 and the latest was done less than five years later 5 March 2011. I also made an entry in Google Calendar which I set up to email me in four years to remind me to change the anode.

Notice that the sticker has a “Tank flushed/vacuumed” reminder. Flushing your tank will also prolong its life. I have flushed my tank once and it is overdue for another flush. However, that is a post for another day.

One final reminder. By replacing the anode you can substantially increase the life of your water heater. Spending $45 every five years will defer for some time the price of a new heater (around $500), plus the cost of installation if you pay someone to do it. Not to mention the inconvenience of suddenly being without hot water or cleaning up a leaking tank.

Out of curiosity, how many readers already knew about replacing the anode?

Videos

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Construction of the Brigham City Utah Temple

Brigham City Utah Temple SiteIn just a week, since our last visit, the Brigham City Utah Temple has gained another floor. In the last photograph in this series, you can see where the Brigham City Tabernacle stands in relation to the temple. Although you cannot see it in the photograph, Main Street runs between the two buildings.

A plaque on Main Street reads:

BOX ELDER TABERNACLE – BUILT 1867-1890 Pioneer settlers used stone and wood from nearby mountains and their finest craftsmanship to built this place of worship. It was finished and dedicated in 1890. Six years later in 1896, it was gutted by fire and had to be rebuilt. The building was finished and rededicated in 1897.

Click on the images to enlarge.

Brigham City Utah Temple floor
Brigham City Utah Temple floor construction
Brigham City Utah Temple work on floor
Brigham City Tabernacle
Brigham City Utah Temple and Tabernacle
Photo Credit: Jill Willoughby
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Brigham City Temple

Brigham City Temple floor
The Brigham City Utah Temple gained a floor since our last visit. As construction continues you can see the changes from two weeks ago. President Boyd K. Packer in his opening remarks at the groundbreaking held Saturday, July 31, 2010 said:

I can see in my mind’s eye a temple sitting here in about two years time. It will be gorgeous, it will be white. You will see in the design of it reflections of previous temples that have been built, particularly the Salt Lake Temple. It will be a beacon from all over the valley.

The temple will be Utah’s fourteenth.

Brigham City Temple floor construction
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Presidents on the United States

The State of the Union

Seal of the President of the United States of AmericaThe annual address by the President to the Congress reports on the condition of the nation and outlines the President’s legislative agenda and his national priorities. Before Warren Harding most presidents delivered the State of the Union as a written report.

He shall from time to time give to Congress information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient. Article II, Section 3

The quotes herein are from State of the Union messages, except for William Harrison (died of pneumonia) and James Garfield (assassinated). I use instead their Inaugural addresses.

Sources

The Presidents Series

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