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Poll Understates Support for Proposition 8

The California Field Poll published in newspapers yesterday significantly understates support for Proposition 8, according to Campaign Manager Frank Schubert. Schubert’s comments are based on a historic review of Field Poll data and a new study that compared polling to actual results in more than two dozen states, including California, where the marriage issue has appeared on the ballot.’s study, released yesterday, shows that pollsters have under-estimated support for marriage measures by an average of seven percentage points in the 26 states studied. In some cases, polls have vastly under-stated support for traditional marriage by as much as 21 percentage points.

The state-by-state study looked at the same-sex marriage issue in 26 states where it has appeared on the ballot, dating back to the first campaign of its kind in Hawaii in 1998. Surveys published by news media outlets prior to an election under-estimated support for traditional marriage by an average of seven points. In only two states (Texas and South Carolina) did pre-election surveys accurately measure voter support for traditional marriage, and in both of those states support stood at 76%. Support for traditional marriage was under-estimated in 23 of the 26 states studied, ranging from a low of 3% in Kentucky and Oregon, to as high as 21% in North Dakota.

In 2000, the Field Poll itself underestimated support for Proposition 22 by at least eight percentage points. That initiative ended up winning with overwhelming voter support — capturing over 61% of the vote. Frank Schubert, who has twice been named the nation’s most valuable consultant by the American Association of Political Consultants, said:

Recent polls published by California media outlets claim that Proposition 8, restoring marriage in California as between a man and a woman, is trailing among voters. These polls, including the Field Poll released this week, suffer from the same historic problem that other polls on this subject around the country have had: they do not accurately reflect the true support for traditional marriage.
I can’t say for sure why polls almost always understate support for traditional marriage, but I believe it is because the media portrays same-sex marriage as being politically correct. Supporters of traditional marriage don’t want pollsters to consider them intolerant, so they mask their true feelings on the issue. The result is that support for traditional marriage rises considerably when voters cast their ballots in the privacy of the voter booth. It is my opinion that the same thing will happen in California when voters cast ballots on Proposition 8.

Earlier surveys from the L.A. Times poll and Survey USA poll have showed Proposition 8/ with a slight lead, at 54% support.

Schubert said:

Our own internal surveys show that we are in a dead-heat on Proposition 8. The campaign manager for the No on 8 campaign has been quoted recently as saying the same thing. This race is very much up for grabs. It’s up to our campaign to convince voters of all the many reasons to restore marriage as between a man and a woman. I remain confident that we will do so.

Source: email.
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Protect Marriage Update

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Know the Facts

Voicing your support for Proposition 8 can sometimes be a bit intimidating, particularly when you don’t know all the facts. We’re sure you will be surprised to learn that many of your friends and neighbors share your support! Proposition 8 is about preserving marriage; it’s not an attack on the gay lifestyle. Proposition 8 doesn’t take away any rights or benefits from gays or lesbians in domestic partnerships. Under California law, “domestic partners shall have the same rights, protections and benefits” as married spouses. (Family Code §297.5.) There are no exceptions. Proposition 8 will not change this.

Townhall Meetings

The Proposition 8 Campaign has been busy hosting a series of townhall meetings throughout the state, providing a local forum for communities to discuss the importance of preserving traditional marriage as between one man and one woman. To date, there have been four townhall meetings in Fresno, Sonoma, San Joaquin and Napa Counties. Each event has been tremendously successful, energizing the community and arming attendees with information on how to get more involved to ensure Proposition 8 passes.

Drawing from between 200-600 attendees, the Protect Marriage Townhall Meetings have created an opportunity for voters to learn about Proposition 8 from leaders in their own community. In each host county, the Campaign has identified representatives from each of the major faith denominations, who then speak about why voting YES on Proposition 8 is such a crucial issue, from their faith’s perspective.

Upcoming townhall meetings include Los Angeles, Orange County and San Bernardino. For more information on a townhall meeting in your area, please contact

Volunteers Needed

With November just around the corner and a likely close vote on Proposition 8 expected, volunteers can make the difference in this election. Proposition 8 is our last chance to protect the institution of marriage, to keep it from being radically redefined for all of society. You can help us tip the scales by volunteering on behalf of the Campaign.

This effort takes committed individuals working hard at the grassroots level. There are many different ways that you can help. Here’s just a sample:

  • Walk precincts
  • Phone voters
  • Distribute literature to your friends and neighbors
  • Donate
  • Show your support through a yard sign or bumper sticker
  • Recruit 10 new volunteers
  • Write a letter to the editor

ACLU Donation

We know that everyday our opponents are busy raising millions of dollars that will be used to mislead our voters. Just recently, we heard of the ACLU’s $1.2 million donation to defeat Proposition 8 — the largest single donation to our opponents in this campaign.

Source: email.
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Volunteers to Visit More Households

50,000 Proposition 8 volunteers have already reached more than one million households up and down the state. These incredible results were accomplished by volunteers who devoted just a few hours of their time during two consecutive weekends. We need to increase this great effort if we want to ensure that Proposition 8 passes come November. If we each do our part, we can protect and restore marriage to the traditional definition that existed before 4 liberal judges working in San Francisco changed it.

Campaign Urges Supporters to Donate

We are up against a well-funded effort to redefine marriage for our children, our families and all of society. Our opponents have already reserved millions of dollars of television advertising, and no doubt have ads ready to confuse and obscure the issues at stake. We need to reserve our own TV and radio time to counter these efforts. With just 60 days left until the November election, the Proposition 8 Campaign is requesting supporters to donate. Targets the Youth Vote

In conjunction with the Pastors’ Rapid Response Network, we recently launched a Web site targeting the youth vote in California. At the Web site, young people in California can learn about the important issues involved in Proposition 8, and can sign up to help. targets teenagers and young adults both from secular and faith backgrounds. Miles McPherson, one of Proposition 8’s key supporters and senior pastor of the Rock Church in San Diego, says the site aims to reach out to all young voters, especially those who support same-sex marriage for the wrong reasons. McPherson, a former NFL player with the San Diego Chargers, said:

Right now they’re driven by the wrong information and a lot of emotion. They’ll say, “I don’t want to be called a bigot. I don’t want to discriminate.”

Making it clear that the Proposition 8 campaign is not “anti-gay” but pro-marriage, the site challenges its users with information in key areas: civil rights, kids, churches, education, public health, faith and society, showing that Proposition 8 is about much more than marriage alone. It shows young people how they can to take action for Proposition 8.
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Protect Marriage Pastor Calls

This morning approximately 2,500 pastors and church leaders gathered at 170 sites in California to participate in a Protect Marriage conference call/Webinar. On the call, pastors and church leaders of all denominations received information and resources to be used in garnering YES on Proposition 8 support from their communities and congregations.

Supporters of Same-Sex Marriage Ad

Backers of same-sex “marriage” have begun airing a new television ad. The Let Freedom Ring ad, which is now airing in California, doesn’t make direct mention of Prop. 8, nevertheless, its intent is clear — to encourage tolerance of same-sex marriage.

Prop. 8 Volunteers Visit More Than One Million Voter Households

Approximately 50,000 Prop. 8 volunteers took to their neighborhoods on Aug. 16 and 23 to encourage their friends and neighbors to vote YES on Proposition 8. By devoting just a few hours of their time, volunteers have reached more than one million households up and down the state in two days.

Advocates of Same-Sex Marriage Continue to Force Compliance

The Proposition 8 Campaign reacted strongly to the California Supreme Court’s ruling that California doctors who have religious objections to artificially inseminating same-sex couples can no longer refuse to treat them. The Court’s decision overturns a previous state Appeals Court decision which ruled in favor of the doctors in 2005.

This latest ruling proves that advocates of same-sex marriage are not simply seeking tolerance, but rather are pushing for compliance in every corner of California society. They will stop at nothing to chip away at the free speech rights and the rights of conscience of Californians everywhere, forcing individuals to accept their lifestyle even against a person’s personal or religious beliefs. It is a slippery slope against the individual rights of Californians.
Ron Prentice, on behalf of the Campaign.

The Supreme Court rejected a San Diego County fertility clinic’s right to refuse performing a procedure. North Coast Women’s Care in Vista declined to perform an intrauterine insemination for an individual, and referred the individual to another facility.

Knights of Columbus Catholic Organization

Just this last week, the Knights of Columbus, the world’s largest Catholic family fraternal service organization, donated $1 million to Proposition 8. Throughout its history, the Knights of Columbus has been an effective advocate and defender of civil and religious rights for all.

Knights of Columbus spokesman Patrick Korten stressed that the importance of, “preserving marriage as the indispensable institution in which children are conceived, born and raised to adulthood by a loving father and mother is vital to a healthy society. It is also the most favorable environment in which to protect the rights and best interests of children.”

Additional Information

Information for this post came from a Protect Marriage campaign update. For more information see Protect Marriage.