Fear not for the future, weep not for the past (Shelley)
I am joining in the fun and releasing my predictions for 2009. See you back here at the end of 2009 to see how I fared. What do you predict for 2009?
1. The Dow will exceed 12,000 FAILED
In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. The Dow crossed the threshold twice, before retreating slightly, closing just under 12,000. Yesterday the Dow ended the day at 8,668.
2. Gas will stay below $2 a gallon in Kaysville FAILED
The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $1.29 a gallon.
3. Proposition 8 will be struck down FAILED
Sadly I am predicting the worst for Proposition 8. With the California judicial, executive, and legislative branches all bent on reversing the will of the people look for Proposition 8 to be no more in 2009.
4. Gold will pass $1,200 an ounce SUCCEEDED
Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Since April 2001 the gold price has more than tripled in value against the US dollar. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars.
5. Unemployment will remain below 7.5% FAILED
The 2008 national unemployment rate was at 4.9% in January and by June had risen to 5.5%. November saw joblessness at 6.7%. I expect the rate to keep rising but then level off and remain below 7.5%.
Wow, those are some tough projections to hold on to for the coming year. Unfortunately, the only one I agree with you on is #3, about Proposition 8, and, unfortunately, not with the same emotion you have on it. I think the Dow will barely reach 10,500 at some point in the year, which would still be a very nice recovery, since I’m not expecting it to happen until late in the year. I think gas will go up again by summer, and though I don’t know your area, if we’re not close to $3 a gallon across the U.S. by then I’ll be shocked. And though I think we’re headed towards 8.5% unemployment, I hope you’re right with $5.
Thanks for your comment, you make some good points. After I came up with the Dow 12,000 and posted my predictions, I did think that perhaps I should have made it 11,000, which is closer to what you are saying. However, I will keep to what I wrote. I placed the Dow high because all the money being pumped into the system will have to break out somewhere. If the Dow goes a lot higher then no doubt gas will, so goodbye to sub $2 prices. But then employment will improve which will give me 3 out of 5 (if Proposition 8 is sustained). However if the economy gets much worse then gold will continue rising and gas stays cheap. Another 3 out of 5. Not bad for a beginner.
Your blog is very fancy in appearance, made me want to read it. For example, you wrote, “Things will turn around, in the mean time try to find a few of those bargain stocks to buy up while they are down.” I just think the Dow is going to come roaring back sooner than most of us think.
Nice Picture!
Here in Michigan unemployment is almost ten percent.
http://www.womensboots.com
Here in Utah it is 3.5%.
A few more predictions:
http://agitationist.com/2009-predictions-for-the-interweb
It will be really interesting to examine all these predictions December 31st. Alas, I do not think we will have to wait that long for mine to fail.
I’m really looking forward to see how well you do with these.
I am planning on having an update paragraph at the end of the post if I fail or succeed on any predictions during the year. Thanks for your interest. Care to make any predictions?
I believe that you may be right on #3. Proposition 8 will probably be reversed, but the reversal will be temporary. The supreme court will ultimately override anything done by the California courts.
Do you really believe on those prediction :)
I am aiming for 60% of the predictions to hold. I wanted to make them tough so that I either succeed magnificently or fail miserably. Do you have any predictions?