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Five 2010 Predictions

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The Crystal Ball. J.W. Waterhouse.

The Crystal Ball. J.W. Waterhouse.

Only one of my five predictions for 2009 succeeded. I predict in 2010 that I will do better.

1. The Dow will drop below 6,750 FAILED

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. On 9 March 2009 the Dow Jones industrial average lost 80 points, or 1.2%, to end at 6,547.05, its lowest point since 15 April 1997.

2. Gas will go above $4 a gallon FAILED

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $2.47 a gallon. It is not unrealistic for gas to go over $4 a gallon next summer. I’m glad I run on CNG.

3. Republicans will gain 40 seats in the House SUCCEEDED

A more realistic prediction would be a gain of 20 to 30 seats but I am optimistic for a net gain of 40 or more seats.

4. Gold will drop below $750 an ounce FAILED

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars. Gold passed $1,200 an ounce on 2 December 2009 but has dropped into the $1,100 range since. It is time for further declines.

5. Utah unemployment will drop to 5% FAILED

Currently the Utah unemployment rate is 6.3%. My prediction of 5% or less is optimistic but achievable considering the positive business climate, the need for services from a growing population, and a fiscally responsible state government.

More Predictions

My predictions are rather bold so I do not expect all of them to succeed. What do you think? Which ones are sure to fail or will any succeed? Do you have any predictions for 2010? If you have blogged about them consider putting a link to your post(s) in the comments.

Check out these predictions:

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Earth2Tech Predictions: 5 Biggest Hurdles for 2010

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Five 2009 Predictions

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Seeing the Future by Cuppojoe.
Fear not for the future, weep not for the past (Shelley)

I am joining in the fun and releasing my predictions for 2009. See you back here at the end of 2009 to see how I fared. What do you predict for 2009?

1. The Dow will exceed 12,000 FAILED

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. The Dow crossed the threshold twice, before retreating slightly, closing just under 12,000. Yesterday the Dow ended the day at 8,668.

2. Gas will stay below $2 a gallon in Kaysville FAILED

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $1.29 a gallon.

3. Proposition 8 will be struck down FAILED

Sadly I am predicting the worst for Proposition 8. With the California judicial, executive, and legislative branches all bent on reversing the will of the people look for Proposition 8 to be no more in 2009.

4. Gold will pass $1,200 an ounce SUCCEEDED

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Since April 2001 the gold price has more than tripled in value against the US dollar. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars.

5. Unemployment will remain below 7.5% FAILED

The 2008 national unemployment rate was at 4.9% in January and by June had risen to 5.5%. November saw joblessness at 6.7%. I expect the rate to keep rising but then level off and remain below 7.5%.
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Dow Ten Largest Daily Point and Percentage Losses

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When you feed the bears, it can get brutal.

Dow Losses

I find it interesting (and depressing) to look at the all-time Dow Jones Industrial Average largest point and percentage losses. The recent losses have been bad news for most people’s 401Ks. The tables show only the largest one-day losses between a given day’s close and the close of the previous trading day.

Notice that the top point losses all are from 1997 onwards whereas only three of the the top ten percentage losses are from 1987 onwards. As a percentage loss, 2008 only appears in ninth place but takes first, second, fourth, and fifth places in point losses.

Further, the last ten years have claimed eight of the ten highest point losses with half of the top ten taking place in 2008.

Dow Top Ten Largest Daily Point Losses

Click ONCE on column headers to sort.

Rank Date Close Change % Change
1 9/29/2008 10365.45 -777.68 -6.98
2 10/15/2008 8577.91 -733.08 -7.87
3 9/17/2001 8920.7 -684.81 -7.13
4 12/1/2008 8,149.09 -679.95 -7.70
5 10/9/2008 8579.19 -678.91 -7.33
6 8/8/2011 10809.85 -634.76 -5.55
7 4/14/2000 10305.78 -617.77 -5.66
8 10/27/1997 7161.14 -554.26 -7.18
9 8/10/2011 10719.94 -519.83 -4.62
10 10/22/2008 8519.21 -514.45 -5.69

 

Dow Top Ten Largest Daily Percentage Losses

Click ONCE on column headers to sort.

Rank Date Close Change % Change
1 10/19/1987 1738.74 -508 -22.61
2 10/28/1929 260.64 -38.33 -12.82
3 10/29/1929 230.07 -30.57 -11.73
4 11/6/1929 232.13 -25.55 -9.92
5 12/18/1899 58.27 -5.57 -8.72
6 8/12/1932 63.11 -5.79 -8.4
7 3/14/1907 76.23 -6.89 -8.29
8 10/26/1987 1793.93 -156.83 -8.04
9 10/15/2008 8577.91 -733.08 -7.87
10 7/21/1933 88.71 -7.55 -7.84

 

Source

For more tables of the Dow largest point and percentage losses see Wikipedia.

Photo Credit

Bear Market by Mark Rain.

Updates

Added a 679.95 point loss for December 1, 2008.
Added a 634.76 point loss for August 8, 2011.
Added a 519.83 point loss for August 10, 2011.
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