Five 2010 Predictions

The Crystal Ball. J.W. Waterhouse.

The Crystal Ball. J.W. Waterhouse.

Only one of my five predictions for 2009 succeeded. I predict in 2010 that I will do better.

1. The Dow will drop below 6,750 FAILED

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. On 9 March 2009 the Dow Jones industrial average lost 80 points, or 1.2%, to end at 6,547.05, its lowest point since 15 April 1997.

2. Gas will go above $4 a gallon FAILED

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $2.47 a gallon. It is not unrealistic for gas to go over $4 a gallon next summer. I’m glad I run on CNG.

3. Republicans will gain 40 seats in the House SUCCEEDED

A more realistic prediction would be a gain of 20 to 30 seats but I am optimistic for a net gain of 40 or more seats.

4. Gold will drop below $750 an ounce FAILED

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars. Gold passed $1,200 an ounce on 2 December 2009 but has dropped into the $1,100 range since. It is time for further declines.

5. Utah unemployment will drop to 5% FAILED

Currently the Utah unemployment rate is 6.3%. My prediction of 5% or less is optimistic but achievable considering the positive business climate, the need for services from a growing population, and a fiscally responsible state government.

More Predictions

My predictions are rather bold so I do not expect all of them to succeed. What do you think? Which ones are sure to fail or will any succeed? Do you have any predictions for 2010? If you have blogged about them consider putting a link to your post(s) in the comments.

Check out these predictions:

8 Predictions for SEO in 2010
Oscars 2010 Predictions – Early Oscar Predictions 2010
10 Apple Predictions for 2010
Earth2Tech Predictions: 5 Biggest Hurdles for 2010

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Central Bank Gold Reserves

The Top Twelve Central Banks Gold Reserve Holdings

The Top Twelve Central Banks Gold Reserve Holdings

With China and India acquiring gold it is interesting to see that the United States still holds almost eight times the gold that China does and more than fourteen times India’s reserves.

Of note is that the United States has 78% of its foreign reserves in gold. Of the countries listed below only Greece (91.6%), Portugal (90.3%), and the Slovak Republic (83.3) have higher rates. However, China has only 1.8% of its foreign reserves in gold. India is looking a little better at 6%.

Only the top 50 countries by gold reserves are listed below. Of course the IMF and a few others are not countries but they do own substantial holdings.

Click on the column headers to sort.

Country Tons1 Percent2 $ Billion3
United States 8,966 78.3 313.80
Germany 3,762 69.5 131.66
IMF 3,546 N/A 124.13
Italy 2,703 66.1 94.59
France 2,701 73.0 94.55
China 1,162 1.8 40.66
Switzerland 1,147 37.1 40.13
Japan 843 2.1 29.52
Netherlands 675 61.4 23.63
Russia 592 4.0 20.71
India 615 6.0 21.52
ECB 553 18.3 19.34
Taiwan 467 3.8 16.34
Portugal 422 90.3 14.76
Venezuela 393 36.5 13.75
United Kingdom 342 17.9 11.97
Lebanon 316 26.8 11.07
Spain 310 39.0 10.86
Austria 309 56.3 10.80
Belgium 251 40.4 8.78
Algeria 191 3.4 6.70
Philippines 170 11.2 5.94
Libya 159 4.3 5.55
Saudi Arabia 158 11.9 5.52
Sweden 146 13.5 5.10
Singapore 140 2.1 4.92
South Africa 137 10.4 4.81
BIS 132 N/A 4.63
Turkey 128 4.9 4.48
Greece 124 91.6 4.34
Romania 114 8.1 4.00
Poland 114 4.8 3.97
Thailand 93 2.0 3.24
Australia 88 7.0 3.08
Kuwait 87 18.6 3.05
Egypt 83 6.3 2.92
Indonesia 81 3.8 2.82
Kazakhstan 80 10.6 2.80
Denmark 73 4.0 2.57
Pakistan 72 17.5 2.52
Argentina 60 3.4 2.11
Finland 54 17.7 1.89
Bulgaria 44 7.2 1.54
WAEMU 40 10.6 1.41
Malaysia 40 1.2 1.40
Peru 38 3.2 1.34
Brazil 37 0.5 1.30
Slovak Republic 35 83.3 1.23
Bolivia 31 10.4 1.09
Ukraine 29 3.1 1.03

Not all countries are listed.

Notes

1. 1 tonne = 1.10231131 short tons.
2. Percentage share in gold of total foreign reserves.
3. 1 short ton = 29,167 troy ounces. Worth is calculated at $1,200 per troy ounce.

Sources

“International Financial Statistics,” International Monetary Fund, 2009.
Gold reserve“, Wikipedia.
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Five 2009 Predictions


Seeing the Future by Cuppojoe.

Fear not for the future, weep not for the past (Shelley)

I am joining in the fun and releasing my predictions for 2009. See you back here at the end of 2009 to see how I fared. What do you predict for 2009?

1. The Dow will exceed 12,000 FAILED

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. The Dow crossed the threshold twice, before retreating slightly, closing just under 12,000. Yesterday the Dow ended the day at 8,668.

2. Gas will stay below $2 a gallon in Kaysville FAILED

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $1.29 a gallon.

3. Proposition 8 will be struck down FAILED

Sadly I am predicting the worst for Proposition 8. With the California judicial, executive, and legislative branches all bent on reversing the will of the people look for Proposition 8 to be no more in 2009.

4. Gold will pass $1,200 an ounce SUCCEEDED

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Since April 2001 the gold price has more than tripled in value against the US dollar. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars.

5. Unemployment will remain below 7.5% FAILED

The 2008 national unemployment rate was at 4.9% in January and by June had risen to 5.5%. November saw joblessness at 6.7%. I expect the rate to keep rising but then level off and remain below 7.5%.
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