Five 2010 Predictions

The Crystal Ball. J.W. Waterhouse.

The Crystal Ball. J.W. Waterhouse.

Only one of my five predictions for 2009 succeeded. I predict in 2010 that I will do better.

1. The Dow will drop below 6,750 FAILED

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. On 9 March 2009 the Dow Jones industrial average lost 80 points, or 1.2%, to end at 6,547.05, its lowest point since 15 April 1997.

2. Gas will go above $4 a gallon FAILED

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $2.47 a gallon. It is not unrealistic for gas to go over $4 a gallon next summer. I’m glad I run on CNG.

3. Republicans will gain 40 seats in the House SUCCEEDED

A more realistic prediction would be a gain of 20 to 30 seats but I am optimistic for a net gain of 40 or more seats.

4. Gold will drop below $750 an ounce FAILED

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars. Gold passed $1,200 an ounce on 2 December 2009 but has dropped into the $1,100 range since. It is time for further declines.

5. Utah unemployment will drop to 5% FAILED

Currently the Utah unemployment rate is 6.3%. My prediction of 5% or less is optimistic but achievable considering the positive business climate, the need for services from a growing population, and a fiscally responsible state government.

More Predictions

My predictions are rather bold so I do not expect all of them to succeed. What do you think? Which ones are sure to fail or will any succeed? Do you have any predictions for 2010? If you have blogged about them consider putting a link to your post(s) in the comments.

Check out these predictions:

8 Predictions for SEO in 2010
Oscars 2010 Predictions – Early Oscar Predictions 2010
10 Apple Predictions for 2010
Earth2Tech Predictions: 5 Biggest Hurdles for 2010

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Five 2009 Predictions


Seeing the Future by Cuppojoe.

Fear not for the future, weep not for the past (Shelley)

I am joining in the fun and releasing my predictions for 2009. See you back here at the end of 2009 to see how I fared. What do you predict for 2009?

1. The Dow will exceed 12,000 FAILED

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. The Dow crossed the threshold twice, before retreating slightly, closing just under 12,000. Yesterday the Dow ended the day at 8,668.

2. Gas will stay below $2 a gallon in Kaysville FAILED

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $1.29 a gallon.

3. Proposition 8 will be struck down FAILED

Sadly I am predicting the worst for Proposition 8. With the California judicial, executive, and legislative branches all bent on reversing the will of the people look for Proposition 8 to be no more in 2009.

4. Gold will pass $1,200 an ounce SUCCEEDED

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Since April 2001 the gold price has more than tripled in value against the US dollar. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars.

5. Unemployment will remain below 7.5% FAILED

The 2008 national unemployment rate was at 4.9% in January and by June had risen to 5.5%. November saw joblessness at 6.7%. I expect the rate to keep rising but then level off and remain below 7.5%.
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Bountiful Cheap Gas


Gasoline station in 1936, Tremont Avenue and Dock Street, Bronx.

Gas at 11 2/10 cents in 1936

I filled up my gas tank today with regular for $1.29 a gallon at an Exxon station in Bountiful, Utah. It looks like I filled up for 10 cents a gallon less than what the the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report lists as the average gas price for my area. I last filled the tank at the beginning of December. I used less gas this month because what little Christmas shopping I did was done over the Internet and I have been temporarily car-pooling the ten miles to work. Using use-or-lose vacation hours also cut down on my travel. Then President Bush kicked in another day off on the 26th with the signing of an executive order. If you are spending and traveling as little as I am, it’s going to be a long recession.

Out of curiosity, what did you pay for gas at your last fill up? Let me know in the comments how much you paid and where.
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Americans for American Energy Act

Enrico Fermi Nuclear Power plant, on Lake Erie
Rob Bishop is the representative of the district in which I live. I have reproduced here a simplified list of his energy act, H.R. 6384, which has already been co-sponsored by more than two dozen other lawmakers and runs some 215 pages long. The 12 steps to greater and less rickety energy independence are to:

1. Increase the supply of natural gas.
2. Development of American oil resources.
3. Develop oil shale.
4. Utilize America’s coal supply.
5. Increase the use of nuclear power.
6. Invest in renewable resources.
7. Promote greater energy efficiency and conservation.
8. Increase America’s gasoline refining capacity.
9. Adopt regulatory relief and tax reform.
10. Improve America’s transmission and energy infrastructure systems.
11. Restore our energy workforce.
12. Develop new energy technologies.

I can simplify the list even more. This is what I think we should do in order of priority:

1. Replace oil and natural gas electrical generation with coal.
2. Replace oil furnaces with natural gas. Heavily promote natural gas and electric vehicles.
3. Greatly expand nuclear power generation of electricity.
4. Invest heavily in solar power.

What is your take on all of this? What would be your priorities? Your comments are welcome.