North Fork Park

North Fork Park camp

North Fork Park campsite

I believe this is the first time that Jill and I have been camping with all our grown children at the same time. Plus their spouses were with us as well as all three of our grandchildren. We did not go far, just to North Fork Park.

North Fork Park Bryson and Aurora

Bryson and Aurora enjoy giant marshmallows

North Fork Park Cassandra

Cassandra

Our children’s spouses are fun to be around. Jill and I are glad that they are a part of our family.

North Fork Park Derek

Derek

North Fork Park Rachel

Rachel

North Fork Park Adelaide

Adelaide

The sunglasses that Adelaide is wearing remind me of the ones Jill wore back in the early 1980s.

For cooking, we had Derek’s smoker, which provided us with some great chicken. Sarah cooked our evening meal using dutch ovens. The campfire was used to roast marshmallows and a homemade cooker, made from a 12 ounce can, carboard, and candle wax, was utilized to cook our bacon and eggs for breakfast.

North Fork Park Derek and smoked chicken

Derek attending to his smoked chicken. Mmm...tasty

North Fork Park dinner

Dinner, clockwise from left: Paul, Megan, Jake, Rachel, Dan, Steven, Aurora, Adelaide, Cassandra, Rick

North Fork Park Dan

Dan: Marshmallow, anyone?

For entertainment we visited around the campfire, played with grandchildren, and identified the stars using Google Sky. There was also…

North Fork Park moose

moose watching...

North Fork Park Dan playing guitar

music...

North Fork Park Jake and Cassandra

Jake making faces at Cassandra...

North Fork Park Jill and Cassandra

and smoke avoidance

The moose were just hanging around the campground.

Sleeping was uneventful except for Jake eating too much dinner and bursting his sleeping mat. And lastly, the mandatory group photograph, click for a 4000×3000 version.

North Fork Park Jake

We heard a loud bang late last night. It was just Jake and his exploding mat.

North Fork Park group photo

Rear: Jake, Paul, Dan, Steve, Derek, Rick. Front: Jill, Aurora, Rachel, Megan, Bryson, Cassandra, Ada, Sarah


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100 Years Ago: War On Mormons Is Waged In Britain

The following was adapted from the Improvement Era magazine of April 1911

Investigation of Mormon activity

Investigation of “Mormon” activity in England will be made by the House of Commons. On the 6th of March, Secretary Churchill stated that the attention of the government had been attracted to recent allegations that young girls were being induced to emigrate to Utah, and that the matter was causing deep concern. He therefore proposed to investigate the subject exhaustively, with a view to bringing out the exact facts.

Hans P. Freece

Hans P. Freece

President Rudger Clawson, of the European Mission of the Latter-day Saints, welcomes the investigation, as do his co-laborers in that country, for they are confident there can be no other outcome before a fair judicial tribunal than a complete vindication of the actions of the Church. It has nothing to fear from an impartial and honest investigation, for its emigration affairs, as well as its missionary work in Great Britain, have been conducted in a manner that will bear the closest scrutiny. The Church has nothing to lose and everything to gain by the action which the home secretary has recommended.

On the 6th of March a demented man broke the windows and door of the mission house in Liverpool, “for God’s sake,” he said.

War On Mormons

Meanwhile the New York Times was reporting the story thus:

War on Mormons Is Waged In Britain

The crusade against Mormons initiated by the International Reform Bureau at Washington is being actively pursued in Great Britain.

Hans P. Freece, the bureau’s special delegate, has arrived in London after a 10 weeks’ tour in Scotland and the north of England, during which he succeeded in locating about 100 Mormon meeting places and 325 American Mormons engaged in inducing young women to emigrate to Utah. He also collected the signed statements of parents whose daughters had been enticed to America, and is in possession of irrefutable evidence that the Mormon church is in the habit of paying for the transportation of converts from England to Utah in violation of the United States immigration law.

Mr. Freece entertains great hope of succeeding in getting a bill into Parliament prohibiting American Mormon elders from proselytizing in this country—in fact, the same law as that adopted by Prussia and Hungary not long ago.

Although Mr. Freece declared his mission to be unofficial, he said he believed that should such a law, cutting off British-Mormon immigration to America, be passed, the Mormons would lose the control of Utah and a Democratic Representative might be expected to be sent to Congress at the next election.

[Hans P. Freece, an apostate, lectured the people against the dangers of “Mormonism,” and sought to prohibit them from preaching in the United Kingdom. A number of those who attended the lectures expressed themselves as being very much disappointed in them. They expected to hear something new from this man, who claims to have been born in the Church, of polygamous parents, but instead he had only the same false stories that have been retold so many times by others.

The International Reform Bureau was founded in 1895 and was known from 1924 as the International Reform Federation. Today it supports those moral and social reforms on which the churches generally agree, focusing especially on drugs and the spread of legalized gambling.]

Sources

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The Watchtower

Grand Canyon Watchtower view

The Watchtower has an internal steel framework designed by the bridge builders of the Santa Fe Railway

When I first saw the Grand Canyon Watchtower I thought it to be an ancient structure that had been restored. But no, the Watchtower was constructed in 1932 and opened in May 1933. Architect Mary Colter designed the tower and took care of every detail, even down to the placement of most of the stones, leaving weathered faces untouched to add to the ancient appearance of the tower. She said:

“First and most important, was to design a building that would become part of its surroundings; one that would create no discordant note against the time eroded walls of this promontory.”

The 70-foot Watchtower, a National Historic Landmark, is located at Desert View, the eastern-most developed area on the South Rim of Grand Canyon National Park. The design takes its influences from the architecture of the ancestral Puebloan people. There is a gift store, with the upper floors utilized as observation decks for views of the canyon and the Painted Desert.

Grand Canyon Watchtower trees

The top floor of the tower is without decoration which might detract from the beautiful panoramic views of the Grand Canyon


Grand Canyon Watchtower and Colorado River

From the Watchtower is a magnificent view of the Colorado River

Desert View, named after the views to the east of the Painted Desert, has a grand view of the Colorado River, the North Rim can been seen more than 10 miles away, and a on a clear day a panoramic view is visible for over 100 miles.
Grand Canyon Watchtower mural

The first gallery, on the first landing, was done by Fred Kabotie, a Hopi from second Mesa


Grand Canyon Watchtower paintingGrand Canyon Watchtower artGrand Canyon Watchtower

Watchtower Family Photographs

Click on the links to view the family pictures shot at the Watchtower.

  • Jake on the top floor
  • Paul outside the Watchtower
  • Jill on the deck of the Watchtower

Sources

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The Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon with Phantom Ranch

The Grand Canyon with Phantom Ranch center right

On our return to Utah from the Mesa Easter Pageant, we stopped at the Grand Canyon. The Canyon is 277 river miles long, is up to 18 miles wide, and a mile deep. It tells of geological processes in a unique combination of size, color, and dazzling erosional forms. There is a fascinating variety of plants and animals, from the desert next to the Colorado River deep in the canyon to the forests atop its North Rim.

The Making Of The Grand Canyon

The Colorado River flowed across the Colorado Plateau on its way from the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California. Each rain washed sparsely vegetated desert soils into the river.

A steep gradient and heavy sediment loads created a powerful tool for erosion. The river’s volume varied seasonally and over time. As the last ice age ended, the flow may have been 10 times today’s volume.

As the river cuts down, the canyon deepens. Tributaries erode into the canyon’s sides, increasing its width. Erosion carves faster into the softer rock layers, undermining harder layers above. With no foundation these layers collapse, forming the cliffs and slopes profile of the canyon. Erosion wears away the ridges separating adjacent side canyons, leaving buttes and pinnacles.

Grand Canyon

Revealed strata preserve a lengthy, although incomplete, record of Earth's history

Grand Canyon Vista with Phantom Ranch and Kaibab_Bridge

Grand Canyon Vista with Phantom Ranch and Kaibab_Bridge

Grand Canyon Kaibab Bridge

Grand Canyon Kaibab Bridge

Grand Canyon visitors

Grand Canyon visitors enjoying the magnificence of their surroundings

Jill at the Grand Canyon

Jill at the Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon Colorado River from the South Rim

Grand Canyon Colorado River from the South Rim

Bright Angel Trail

The most popular trail into the canyon begins west of the Bright Angel Lodge on the South Rim. The trailhead elevation is 6,785 feet and descends 4,380 feet to the Colorado River. The Bright Angel Trail offers wonderful views all along the trail. It has an average grade of 10% along its entire length. At trail’s end, the River Trail continues another 2 miles to the Bright Angel Campground and Phantom Ranch.

Hazards hikers can encounter along the Bright Angel Trail include dehydration, sudden rainstorms, flash flooding, loose footing, bootpacked ice, rockfall, encounters with wildlife, and extreme heat. At the Colorado River, additional hazards include hypothermia (due to the river’s consistently cold temperatures), trauma (due to collisions with boulders in rapids), and drowning.

We decided to walk for just a half-hour down the trail.

Grand Canyon group shot

Along the Bright Angel Trail: Jill, Bryson, Paul, Sarah, Derek, Jake, and Rick

Bright Angel Trail

Along the Bright Angel Trail: Derek carrying Bryson, Sarah, Jill, and Paul

Jill on the Bright Angel Trail

The end, or the beginning, of the Bright Angel Trail

Jill pausing for a photograph on the Bright Angel Trail

Jill pausing for a photograph on the Bright Angel Trail

Grand Canyon Family Photographs

Click on the links to view the family pictures shot at the Grand Canyon.

Colorado River from the South Rim of the The Grand Canyon

Colorado River from the South Rim of the the Grand Canyon

Sources

  • National Park Service Grand Canyon brochure
  • National Park Service Grand Canyon Guide & Maps
  • Wikipedia Bright Angel Trail

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100 Years Ago: Tax, Tax, Tax

Tax returnThe following was adapted from the Improvement Era magazines of April 1911 and May 1911.

Inheritance Tax

The largest inheritance tax on record in the United States was lately received by the state of Utah. The check, dated March 1, 1911, was received by State Treasurer David Mattson, on the 9th of March, from Mrs. Mary W. Harriman, executrix, and was made out for the amount of $798,546.85, being the inheritance tax on the late Edward H. Harriman’s property in Utah.

The legislature on the 10th passed a bill appropriating $750,000 of the amount towards the building of the state capitol, in Salt Lake City, which had been arranged for earlier in the session, and for which a bond issue of one million dollars had been authorized.

[The story also appeared in The New York Times. The inheritance tax was 5% on $15,980,937 of Union Pacific stock. The Union Pacific Railroad was incorporated under the laws of Utah, hence payment to the state. In 2011 the Federal estate tax was 35% with Utah no longer having an inheritance tax nor an estate tax.]

Corporation Tax

The corporation tax provision in the Payne-Aldrich tariff act was held by unanimous opinion of the United States Supreme Court, rendered March 13, to be valid. The decision was announced by Justice William R. Day, appointed to the Supreme Court from Ohio, in 1903.

The opinon was an elaborate treatment of the subject, and the tax was declared to be an excise tax on the doing of corporate business, and not a direct tax on the ownership of property. It was held that the tax was not applicable to the real estate “trust” of Boston, and the Minneapolis syndicate, since they were not “doing business” within the meaning of the law.

An income of approximately twenty-five million dollars annually will be assured to the government by this decision.

[In 2011, Federal tax rates on corporate taxable income varied from 15% to 35%. In 2010, 6.6% ($138.2 billion) of Federal revenue came from corporations.]

Income Tax

The national income tax amendment to the national constitution, submitted by resolution of Congress in July, 1909, has been acted on favorably this year by nineteen legislatures, eleven states have thus far rejected it. Since the amendment must be approved by three-fourths of the states, nine more states are necessary for favorable action.

Since the constitution fixes no time limit to legislative action, the legislatures which rejected it this year may approve it next. Utah so far has not joined in favor of the proposed measure.

[On February 25, 1913, the amendment was ratified by the necessary three-fourths of the states, and became a part of the Constitution. On October 3, the Revenue Act of 1913 was enacted which re-imposed the Federal income tax. The Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Utah legislatures rejected the amendment. Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia never considered the amendment.]

Adapted from: “Passing Events”, Improvement Era, Vol. XIV. April, 1911. No. 6 and “Passing Events”, May, 1911. No. 7
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100 Years Ago: General Conference Statistical Report

An excerpt from President Joseph F. Smith’s April 1911 General Conference opening address:

I have had prepared just a few little statements which will indicate to you, I think, better perhaps than I could tell you from memory, although they are familiar to me, the condition of the Church and of the labors and accomplishments thereof during the year that has only recently closed. I have an item here that there have been two new stakes organized in 1910, namely the Duchesne and the Carbon stakes of Zion. There have been organized fifteen new wards during the same period. There are now 62 organized stakes of Zion, and 696 wards, and 21 missions.

Joseph F. Smith

President Joseph F. Smith

All of these require the constant supervision and attention not only of the bishops and the presidents of stakes, and the high councils of these various organizations, but of the presidency of the Church, by whom communications are constantly received from all these presidents, or the most of them, and frequently many of them, and frequently from almost all these wards.

Baptisms

The number of persons that have been baptized in the stakes of Zion and in the missions, during the year 1910, was 15,902.

Birth and Death Rates

The birth-rate of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints for the year 1910, was 38 per thousand, the highest birthrate in the world, as far as available statistics show.

The death-rate of the Church, for the year 1910, was 9 per thousand, the lowest death-rate in the world, as far as we have been able to ascertain from published statistics.

Marriage and Divorce

There were 1,360 couples married in the temples in 1910, and there were 1,100 couples married, of Church members, by civil ceremony during the same year.

There was one divorce to each 5,000 Church members. The average divorce rate in the United States is one to each 1,100 souls. This shows that our divorce rate is only about one-fifth of the average rate in our nation.

Missionaries

There were 2,028 missionaries laboring in the various missions on December 31st, 1910.

There was expended by the Church, in maintaining missions and for fares of returning missionaries, during the year 1910, the sum of $215,000. This amount does not include the very large sum, in the aggregate, furnished by the people to assist their sons and daughters, or husbands and fathers, while in the mission field.

Upwards of $300,000 was paid by the Church during 1910 for maintaining our Church schools; and over $200,000 was paid out in the Church to assist the poor, during the year 1910.

All expenses incurred on account of the general authorities of the Church, of operating expenses of the president’s office, the historian’s office, and the presiding bishop’s office, were paid out of revenues derived from investments made by the trustee-in-trust, within past few years. This leaves the tithes of the Church to be used for the building of ward meeting houses and stake tabernacles, for maintenance of Church schools and temples, for missions abroad, and for the support of the poor.

Comparisons With 2011

As reported by President Smith, two stakes and 15 wards were organized in 1910 for a total of 62 stakes and 696 wards. Reported in Conference today, in 2010 there were 31 stakes and 236 wards formed, for a total of 2,896 stakes and 28,660 wards.

At the end of 1910, there were 2,028 missionaries in 21 missions. At the end of 2010, there were 52,225 missionaries in 340 missions. In addition there were 20,813 Church Service Missionaries.

In 1910 there were 15,902 baptisms and in 2010 there were 272,814 convert baptisms and 120,528 new children of record.

In 1910 there were 398,478 members and in 2010 there were 14,131,467 members.

In April 1911 there were 4 temples in operation. In April 2011 there were 134 temples in operation, 4 temples announced at Conference and a further 22 temples previously announced or under construction.

The $715,000 for maintaining Church schools and missions, and support of the poor, in constant 1913 dollars, would amount to $15,983,428 in 2011.

Sources

  • The Eighty-First Annual Conference of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints convened in the Tabernacle, Salt Lake City, at 10 a.m. on Thursday, April 6, 1911, President Joseph F. Smith presiding.
  • Live KSL TV LDS General Conference broadcast, April 2, 2011.
  • 2011 Deseret News Church Almanac.

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The Limits To Population Projections

Aurora, Cassandra, and Bryson

Grandchildren Aurora, Cassandra, and Bryson

I am intrigued by predictions of calamities that never materialized. For example, in the five decades leading up to the year 2000, I have lived through predictions of mass starvation, nuclear annihilation, and an ice age.

In 1972, The Club of Rome published a book entitled The Limits To Growth. In the foreword, on page 11, the authors identified “the five basic factors that determine, and therefore, ultimately limit, growth on this planet,” namely:

  1. Population
  2. Agricultural Production
  3. Natural Resources
  4. Industrial Production
  5. Pollution

“Super”-exponential Growth

In this post I am concerned only with population. Particularly the predictions the authors of The Limits To Growth made about population. The book goes into detail about exponential growth in general and as it applies to population:

In 1650 the population numbered about 0.5 billion, and it was growing at a rate of approximately 0.3 percent per year. That corresponds to a doubling time of nearly 250 years. In 1970 the population totaled 3.6 billion and the rate of growth was 2.1 percent per year. The doubling time at this growth rate is 33 years. Thus, not only has the population been growing exponentially, but the rate of growth has also been growing. We might say that the population growth has been “super”-exponential; the population curve is rising even faster than it would if growth were strictly exponential. (“The Nature of Exponential Growth,”The Limits To Growth, 1972, 34)

Clearly, “super”-exponential sounds very frightening. Indeed, of sufficient concern to cause governments to panic and adopt policies they would not normally endorse.

Intriguingly, in 1972, when “The Limits To Growth” was published, the growth rate of population was already in decline. Since that year the population growth rate has continually decreased to a rate that is almost half of the peak.

14.4 Billion People by 2030

Another warning from the book:

…we can look forward to a world population of around 7 billion persons in 30 more years [in the year 2000]. And if we continue to succeed in lowering mortality with no better success in lowering fertility than we have accomplished in the past, in 60 years there will be four people in the world for every one person living today. (The Limits To Growth, 38)

Taking the population as of 1970, which was 3.6 billion, and multiplying by 4, we arrive 60 years hence in 2030 with a predicted population of 14.4 billion people.

Now, using numbers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), let us see where the population was in 2000 and look at projections to the year 2100. I am using the IIASA estimates because they closely align with the United Nations medium variant but go beyond 2050.

Population Growth Chart and Table

World Population Growth

Year Population Year Population
2000 6.12 2050 8.75
2005 6.51 2055 8.85
2010 6.82 2060 8.87
2015 7.17 2065 8.90
2020 7.51 2070 8.89
2025 7.79 2075 8.87
2030 8.05 2080 8.85
2035 8.26 2085 8.72
2040 8.47 2090 8.62
2045 8.63 2095 8.50
2100 8.39

Population in billions

Conclusions

Notice that the 2000 population prediction was off by one billion less. The 14.4 billion forecast in 2030 will not be reached with less than 19 years left. The current IIASA projection is for a population peak that is just shy of 9 billion by 2068. Thus the prediction from The Limits To Growth will come up short by a huge 5.4 billion people.

Granted, I am using a current projection to discredit a past projection. However, the record so far is to overestimate population growth. For example, China’s population is projected to peak at less than 1.4 billion in 2026, both earlier and at a lower level than previously projected.

I expect to see further revisions downward in the projections of population growth. Fertility rates have been falling for over sixty years and demographic momentum will shrink the world’s population just as quickly as it contributed to rapid growth.

We must not let outfits such as The Club of Rome dictate to governments unwise population policies based on dubious and inaccurate predictions of the future.

External Articles

This list is updated occasionally, with newer additions listed first.

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Replacing My Sacrificial Anode

Extracting the spent anode

Extracting the spent anode

It is time, yet again, to replace my water heater’s sacrificial anode. My purpose here is to bring to your awareness the importance of changing the anode to substantially prolong the life of your water heater. This is not a “how to” and if you are unsure of your skills you should call a professional.

Rust Protection

For decades, the sacrificial anode has been a key part of the rust protection of a tank. The anode is a rod made of magnesium or aluminum that’s formed around a steel core wire and is screwed into the top of the tank. When the tank is filled with water, an electrolytic process begins whereby the sacrificial anode is consumed to protect a small amount of the tank’s exposed steel. Anodes corrode more quickly in softened water.

When the anode is removed, if you can see six inches of the steel core wire, replace the rod. If all you have is the steel core wire, or less, then the tank may be about to fail, or it could last several more years. There are two kinds of anodes, combo and hex-head. The hex-head has its own port that you can see in my photographs, the combo is found in the hot water port.

I always replace my anodes with magnesium rather than aluminum. Aluminum produces less driving current between anode and cathode (the tank is the cathode). It produces many times its original volume in corrosion byproduct which adds to sediment and can also clog filters. Aluminum rods expand as they corrode making them hard to remove. And lastly some of that aluminum can get into the cold water and do nasty things to your liver, brain, and kidneys.

For more information, see The Basics: Anodes and Longevity. These are the people I buy my anodes from if I cannot obtain them locally.

Preparation

I read about sacrificial anodes just before my first water heater rusted through and had to be replaced. I removed the anode from the old tank and found all that was left of the rod was the steel core. By changing the sacrificial anode at least every five years, the new tank has now outlasted the old tank.

To make replacing the anode a little easier, when I bought my new tank I made sure it came with an hex-head anode. Before obtaining a replacement anode, I measured the distance from the top of the tank to the ceiling. That will be the maximum length of anode you can install. In my case I had 48 inches of clearance — just right.

Removal

Paul replaced the old anode with Megan photographing the steps.

Opening the temperature relief valve

Opening the temperature relief valve

Paul turned off the water to the house and then opened the temperature relief valve on the tank. He didn’t turn off the natural gas supply to the water heater, although in the past I have done so when I have changed the anode.

Using a wrench to remove the anode

Using a wrench to remove the anode

A large adjustable wrench was used to loosen the hex-head anode. It came out easily though sometimes they really do need a hefty wrench.

Removing the anode

Removing the anode

The old anode was removed. We had enough room between the top of the tank and the ceiling to remove the anode. However, if there was not sufficient space, the used rod will easily bend.

Inspecting the old anode

This is what our used anode looked like

On inspection, you can see that the anode does indeed need replacing. Four years ago this was a .84 inch thick 4 foot long solid magnesium hex-head anode.

Installation

Installing the new sacrificial anode is simple enough.

Adding tape for easy removal

Adding tape for easy removal

The new rod came with a roll of tape that is wound around the anode to make removal easier. The tape does not seem to hinder the essential electrolytic process that consumes the rod and thus protecting your tank.

Installing the anode

Installing the anode

Tightening the anode

Tightening the anode. Don't overdo it!

Anode fully installed

Anode fully installed. Paul, you do good work

Clean Up

Paul closed the temperature relief valve and turned the water back on.

Recording the installation

Recording the installation date

It is very important to record the installation date. My previous kit came with a sticker to place on my tank. The first replacement was done five years after installation of the water heater, in February of 2002. The next replacement was 31 Oct 2007 and the latest was done less than five years later 5 March 2011. I also made an entry in Google Calendar which I set up to email me in four years to remind me to change the anode.

Notice that the sticker has a “Tank flushed/vacuumed” reminder. Flushing your tank will also prolong its life. I have flushed my tank once and it is overdue for another flush. However, that is a post for another day.

One final reminder. By replacing the anode you can substantially increase the life of your water heater. Spending $45 every five years will defer for some time the price of a new heater (around $500), plus the cost of installation if you pay someone to do it. Not to mention the inconvenience of suddenly being without hot water or cleaning up a leaking tank.

Out of curiosity, how many readers already knew about replacing the anode?

Videos

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Presidents on the United States

The State of the Union

Seal of the President of the United States of AmericaThe annual address by the President to the Congress reports on the condition of the nation and outlines the President’s legislative agenda and his national priorities. Before Warren Harding most presidents delivered the State of the Union as a written report.

He shall from time to time give to Congress information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient. Article II, Section 3

The quotes herein are from State of the Union messages, except for William Harrison (died of pneumonia) and James Garfield (assassinated). I use instead their Inaugural addresses.

Sources

The Presidents Series

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