The Crystal Ball. J.W. Waterhouse.

Only one of my five predictions for 2009 succeeded. I predict in 2010 that I will do better.

1. The Dow will drop below 6,750

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. On 9 March 2009 the Dow Jones industrial average lost 80 points, or 1.2%, to end at 6,547.05, its lowest point since 15 April 1997.

2. Gas will go above $4 a gallon

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $2.47 a gallon. It is not unrealistic for gas to go over $4 a gallon next summer. I’m glad I run on CNG.

3. Republicans will gain 40 seats in the House

A more realistic prediction would be a gain of 20 to 30 seats but I am optimistic for a net gain of 40 or more seats.

4. Gold will drop below $750 an ounce

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars. Gold passed $1,200 an ounce on 2 December 2009 but has dropped into the $1,100 range since. It is time for further declines.

5. Utah unemployment will drop to 5%

Currently the Utah unemployment rate is 6.3%. My prediction of 5% or less is optimistic but achievable considering the positive business climate, the need for services from a growing population, and a fiscally responsible state government.

More Predictions

My predictions are rather bold so I do not expect all of them to succeed. What do you think? Which ones are sure to fail or will any succeed? Do you have any predictions for 2010? If you have blogged about them consider putting a link to your post(s) in the comments.

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Updates

Check back here during 2010.

Related posts:

1. Five 2009 Predictions
2. Bountiful Cheap Gas
3. Weight Watchers Walk-It Challenge 2010

I am joining in the fun and releasing my predictions for 2009. See you back here at the end of 2009 to see how I fared. What do you predict for 2009?

1. The Dow will exceed 12,000 FAILED

In October 2006 the Dow Jones industrial average crossed over the 12,000 mark briefly for the first time in its 112-year history. The Dow crossed the threshold twice, before retreating slightly, closing just under 12,000. Yesterday the Dow ended the day at 8,668.

2. Gas will stay below $2 a gallon in Kaysville FAILED

The price of gas here in Kaysville, Utah is currently $1.29 a gallon.

3. Proposition 8 will be struck down FAILED

Sadly I am predicting the worst for Proposition 8. With the California judicial, executive, and legislative branches all bent on reversing the will of the people look for Proposition 8 to be no more in 2009.

4. Gold will pass $1,200 an ounce SUCCEEDED

Since 1968 the price of gold on the open market has ranged widely, from a low of $252.90 an ounce on 21 June 1999, to a high of $1,023.50 an ounce on 17 March 2008. Since April 2001 the gold price has more than tripled in value against the US dollar. Indexed for inflation, the 1980 high of $850 an ounce would equate to a price of around $2,400 in 2007 US dollars.

5. Unemployment will remain below 7.5% FAILED

The 2008 national unemployment rate was at 4.9% in January and by June had risen to 5.5%. November saw joblessness at 6.7%. I expect the rate to keep rising but then level off and remain below 7.5%.

Don’t Like My Predictions?

Hmm, you’re so predictable. Check out the predictions at J-Walk Blog, Bob Krumm, and The Correct Call.

Updates

6 Feb 2009 Prediction #5 gets the sack. See Jobless rate jumps to 7.6 percent.
21 Feb 2009 Thursday morning in Kaysville gas at the four main stations was $1.63, $1.65, $1.67, and $1.69 — getting closer to $2, yikes. However, gold was on its way to $1,200 by breaking above $1,000 on Friday. If gold is rising, I would expect the Dow to be falling, which it was — to 7,365 — a long way from 12,000.
3 Apr 2009 Today in Kaysville gas was $1.81, $1.85, or $1.89, depending on which station you chose. However, at Bountiful’s Costco I filled up for $1.65 a gallon. The DOW finished above 8,000 at 8,017 — less than 4,000 to go. Gold was at 893.80 an ounce.
18 Apr 2009 All four Kaysville gas stations were pricing gas at $2.03. My #2 prediction has finally ran out of gas.
28 May 2009 Yesterday Proposition 8 was upheld, therefore this prediction failed for which I am glad I was wrong. Proposition 8 could still be defeated in federal court, though I hope it isn’t. My prediction was meant to apply to the California Supreme Court so this prediction has run its course.
30 Sep 2009 The Dow finished at 9,712.28 today so has a ways to go before crossing 12,000. It has been as high as 9,829.87 this year. Gold has crossed the $1,000 mark again.
2 Dec 2009 Gold passed $1,200 an ounce today. Prediction number 4 succeeded.

Related posts:

1. Five 2010 Predictions
2. Utah Gas Tax Hike Possible
3. Rickety: Top Ten Blog Posts of 2009