Comments on: Five 2010 Predictions http://www.rickety.us/2009/12/five-2010-predictions/ Mostly about Utah Thu, 09 Sep 2010 09:46:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: rickety http://www.rickety.us/2009/12/five-2010-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-4738 rickety Sun, 20 Dec 2009 15:19:53 +0000 http://www.rickety.us/?p=8451#comment-4738 Very good question. I should have outlined my reasoning but I wanted to keep things simple. The predictions are just for fun. I also try to choose unlikely scenarios which makes it all the more satisfying if they come true. My thinking about the gold price is this: First, it has already risen a lot and just like oil and other commodities the more the rise the greater the fall (eventually). Second, 2010 is an election year. I see Congress making attempts at restraining spending to try and placate the voters. This would strengthen the dollar and cause gold to fall. Once gold is dropping consistently I see people getting out of gold to preserve their gains. Third, I expect interest rates to rise which would further pressure gold. $750 is at the far end of my range. Under $1,000 would have been a safer prediction. This isn't a financial blog and I don't own any gold (and I don't want to) but I like to follow its progress and that of silver (which I wouldn't mind owning someday). So don't take my predictions too seriously (no-one else does). How do you see 2010 and the price of gold and silver? I like your avatar by the way. Very good question. I should have outlined my reasoning but I wanted to keep things simple. The predictions are just for fun. I also try to choose unlikely scenarios which makes it all the more satisfying if they come true.

My thinking about the gold price is this:

First, it has already risen a lot and just like oil and other commodities the more the rise the greater the fall (eventually).

Second, 2010 is an election year. I see Congress making attempts at restraining spending to try and placate the voters. This would strengthen the dollar and cause gold to fall. Once gold is dropping consistently I see people getting out of gold to preserve their gains.

Third, I expect interest rates to rise which would further pressure gold. $750 is at the far end of my range. Under $1,000 would have been a safer prediction.

This isn’t a financial blog and I don’t own any gold (and I don’t want to) but I like to follow its progress and that of silver (which I wouldn’t mind owning someday). So don’t take my predictions too seriously (no-one else does).

How do you see 2010 and the price of gold and silver? I like your avatar by the way.

]]> By: Jason@Gold and Silver http://www.rickety.us/2009/12/five-2010-predictions/comment-page-1/#comment-4736 Jason@Gold and Silver Sun, 20 Dec 2009 10:00:13 +0000 http://www.rickety.us/?p=8451#comment-4736 Hi Rickety. What's your basis for saying that gold will go down to below $750 an ounce? Gold is far below the TRUE all time "inflation-adjusted highs" which would be about $7000/oz. Central banks are running short on gold, and are starting to buy gold again. Hi Rickety. What’s your basis for saying that gold will go down to below $750 an ounce? Gold is far below the TRUE all time “inflation-adjusted highs” which would be about $7000/oz. Central banks are running short on gold, and are starting to buy gold again.

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